Eurovision 2018 Second Semi-Final Predictions

The second semi-final of the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest takes place Thursday, May 10 in Lisbon, Portugal. Will we go 10-for-10 in our guesses for who will qualify? Or will there be just as many surprises as Tuesday’s show?

After much number-crunching, YouTube watching, head scratching, dart throwing, and on-air disagreements, we have finally compiled our data and made our prediction for which ten acts we think will advance out of the second semi-final of the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest.

The 10 acts that we think will advance, presented in alphabetical order, are:

  • Australia
  • Denmark
  • Hungary
  • Moldova
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Slovenia
  • Sweden
  • Ukraine

Let’s talk about our confidence levels, shall we?

Australia, Norway, and Sweden landed in the top 10 across all metrics we use to compile our final prediction. We love them, the oddsmakers love them, and folks on YouTube love them. That’s full consensus in our mind. Although Greece also shared that full consensus on Tuesday (oops), Norway and Sweden did go through a vetting process and Australia has been part of public performances through the international pre-parties.

Ukraine also seems like a safe bet, having ranked 11 in only one of our metrics and placing top 10 in the rest. Also, as the closer in the running order, there’s a strong chance that positioning will offer a boost.

Everyone else is, well, a giant shrug emoji. There’s a fair amount of uncertainty after Tuesday’s semi-final with surprise qualifications from Albania, Ireland, and Lithuania. Perhaps Hungary’s hard rock entry isn’t a tough sell? Moldova’s performance may be delightful, but maybe it’s masking an otherwise average song? And maybe Russia’s Gonna Russia and sneak into Saturday’s final?1


Eurovision Song Contest 2018 Second Semi-Final Participants

Running OrderCountryArtistSongJuryTelevoteTotalRank
1NorwayAlexander RybakThat's How You Write a Song1331332661
2RomaniaThe HumansGoodbye674010711
3SerbiaSanja Ilić and BalkanikaNova deca45721179
4San MarinoJessika (f/ Jenifer Brening)Who We Are14142817
5DenmarkRasmussenHigher Ground401642045
6RussiaYuliya SamoylovaI Won't Break14516515
7MoldovaDoReDosMy Lucky Day821532353
8NetherlandsWaylonOutlaw in 'Em127471747
9AustraliaJessica MauboyWe Got Love130822124
10GeorgiaEthno-Jazz Band IriaoFor You11132418
11PolandGromee feat. Lukas MeijerLight Me Up21608114
13HungaryAWSViszlát nyár238811110
14LatviaLaura RizzottoFunny Girl921410612
15SwedenBenjamin IngrossoDance You Off171832542
16MontenegroVanja RadovanovićInje23174016
17SloveniaLea SirkHvala, ne!67651328
18UkraineMélovinUnder the Ladder651141796
These are the countries that competed in the second semi-final of the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest in Lisbon, Portugal. The second semi-final was held Thursday, May 10.

France, Germany, and Italy voted in this semi-final.


We’ll find out the results at the end of the second semi-final, which takes place today at 21:00 CET / 3pm Eastern / 12pm Pacific, live from Lisbon, Portugal.


  1. Russia is only 2 points from making our top 10.  
About the Author
We are a pair of Americans trying to make sense of the Eurovision Song Contest.